{"id":6915,"date":"2026-04-20T16:28:32","date_gmt":"2026-04-20T09:28:32","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/regular-investor.com\/?p=6915"},"modified":"2026-04-20T16:28:37","modified_gmt":"2026-04-20T09:28:37","slug":"indef-pemerintah-belum-optimal-tangkap-windfall-lonjakan-harga-komoditas","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/regular-investor.com\/index.php\/2026\/04\/20\/indef-pemerintah-belum-optimal-tangkap-windfall-lonjakan-harga-komoditas\/","title":{"rendered":"Indef: Pemerintah Belum Optimal Tangkap Windfall Lonjakan Harga Komoditas"},"content":{"rendered":"\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\"><strong>Windfall Komoditas Belum Maksimal<\/strong><\/h2>\n\n\n\n<p>Institute for Development of Economics and Finance (<strong>Indef<\/strong>) menilai pemerintah belum optimal memanfaatkan lonjakan harga komoditas global yang seharusnya menjadi sumber tambahan penerimaan luar biasa (<strong>windfall<\/strong>).<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Dalam laporan terbarunya, Indef menyebut negara bisa memperoleh tambahan penerimaan sekitar <strong>Rp192 triliun<\/strong> saat harga komoditas melonjak pada 2022. Namun, tata kelola fiskal sektor sumber daya alam (<strong>SDA<\/strong>) dinilai masih belum seimbang.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\"><strong>Royalti Dinilai Regresif<\/strong><\/h2>\n\n\n\n<p>Menurut peneliti Indef, <strong>Ariyo DP Irhamna<\/strong>, mekanisme royalti saat ini bersifat regresif terhadap windfall.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<blockquote class=\"wp-block-quote is-layout-flow wp-block-quote-is-layout-flow\">\n<p>\u201cNegara hanya menangkap 10%\u201315% economic rent saat harga tinggi, tetapi 30%\u201380% saat harga rendah,\u201d tulis Ariyo dalam laporan, Senin (20\/4\/2026).<\/p>\n<\/blockquote>\n\n\n\n<p>Hal ini terjadi karena sistem royalti berbasis <strong>pendapatan kotor<\/strong>, bukan keuntungan bersih. Skema tersebut kurang adaptif terhadap fluktuasi harga, sehingga negara tidak mendapat bagian maksimal saat harga komoditas naik, namun tetap membebani industri saat harga turun.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\"><strong>Volatilitas Harga Komoditas<\/strong><\/h2>\n\n\n\n<p>Contoh ekstrem terjadi pada harga batu bara:<\/p>\n\n\n\n<ul class=\"wp-block-list\">\n<li><strong>2020:<\/strong> sekitar <strong>US$50\/ton<\/strong>.<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li><strong>2022:<\/strong> melonjak hingga <strong>US$400\/ton<\/strong>.<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n\n\n\n<figure class=\"wp-block-image size-large\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" width=\"1024\" height=\"285\" src=\"https:\/\/regular-investor.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/04\/NCF1_2026-04-20_16-26-24-1024x285.png\" alt=\"\" class=\"wp-image-6917\" srcset=\"https:\/\/regular-investor.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/04\/NCF1_2026-04-20_16-26-24-1024x285.png 1024w, https:\/\/regular-investor.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/04\/NCF1_2026-04-20_16-26-24-300x84.png 300w, https:\/\/regular-investor.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/04\/NCF1_2026-04-20_16-26-24-768x214.png 768w, https:\/\/regular-investor.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/04\/NCF1_2026-04-20_16-26-24-1536x428.png 1536w, https:\/\/regular-investor.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/04\/NCF1_2026-04-20_16-26-24.png 1826w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 1024px) 100vw, 1024px\" \/><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<p>Pergerakan drastis ini membuat penerimaan negara sulit diproyeksikan dan tidak bisa dioptimalkan dengan instrumen fiskal konvensional. Ketika harga kembali turun, ruang fiskal menjadi sempit dan penerimaan negara tertekan.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\"><strong>Usulan PRRT sebagai Solusi<\/strong><\/h2>\n\n\n\n<p>Indef mengusulkan penerapan <strong>Progressive Resource Rent Tax (PRRT)<\/strong>, yakni pajak tambahan atas keuntungan di atas tingkat pengembalian normal.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<ul class=\"wp-block-list\">\n<li><strong>Prinsip PRRT:<\/strong> semakin besar keuntungan, semakin tinggi kontribusi ke negara.<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li><strong>Economic rent:<\/strong> keuntungan di luar biaya modal dan risiko eksplorasi, yang secara prinsip menjadi hak negara.<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li><strong>Simulasi Indef:<\/strong> PRRT dengan ambang batas pengembalian 15% dan tarif 20%\u201340% bisa menambah penerimaan rata-rata <strong>Rp67 triliun per tahun (2017\u20132024)<\/strong>. Pada puncak 2022, tambahan penerimaan diperkirakan mencapai <strong>Rp192 triliun<\/strong>.<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\"><strong>Tantangan Implementasi<\/strong><\/h2>\n\n\n\n<p>Meski berpotensi meningkatkan penerimaan tanpa mengganggu minat investasi, penerapan PRRT membutuhkan:<\/p>\n\n\n\n<ul class=\"wp-block-list\">\n<li>Payung hukum setingkat undang-undang.<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>Sistem data dan pengawasan yang lebih kuat.<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>Kemampuan audit berbasis profitabilitas, termasuk penguasaan struktur biaya ekstraktif, transfer pricing kontrak afiliasi, dan valuasi aset jangka panjang.<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\"><strong>Kesimpulan<\/strong><\/h2>\n\n\n\n<p>Indef menilai kebijakan fiskal SDA saat ini belum cukup responsif terhadap dinamika pasar global. Royalti berbasis pendapatan kotor membuat negara kehilangan potensi windfall besar saat harga komoditas melonjak.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Dengan penerapan PRRT, Indonesia berpeluang meningkatkan penerimaan negara secara signifikan, sekaligus menjaga keseimbangan antara kepentingan fiskal dan keberlanjutan investasi di sektor sumber daya alam.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>Windfall Komoditas Belum Maksimal Institute for Development of Economics and Finance (Indef) menilai pemerintah belum optimal memanfaatkan lonjakan harga komoditas global yang seharusnya menjadi sumber tambahan penerimaan luar biasa (windfall). Dalam laporan terbarunya, Indef menyebut negara bisa memperoleh tambahan penerimaan sekitar Rp192 triliun saat harga komoditas melonjak pada 2022. Namun, tata kelola fiskal sektor sumber [&hellip;]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":4,"featured_media":6916,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":"","jetpack_publicize_message":"","jetpack_publicize_feature_enabled":true,"jetpack_social_post_already_shared":true,"jetpack_social_options":{"image_generator_settings":{"template":"highway","default_image_id":0,"font":"","enabled":false},"version":2},"_links_to":"","_links_to_target":""},"categories":[7],"tags":[1227,4833,904,4847],"class_list":["post-6915","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-economics","tag-batu-bara","tag-harga-komoditas","tag-indef","tag-royalti"],"yoast_head":"<!-- This site is optimized with the Yoast SEO plugin v27.4 - https:\/\/yoast.com\/product\/yoast-seo-wordpress\/ -->\n<title>Indef: Pemerintah Belum Optimal Tangkap Windfall Lonjakan Harga Komoditas - Regular-investor.com<\/title>\n<meta name=\"description\" content=\"Indef menilai pemerintah gagal memanfaatkan lonjakan harga komoditas global 2022 yang berpotensi menambah penerimaan Rp192 triliun. 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