{"id":6046,"date":"2025-05-31T16:54:05","date_gmt":"2025-05-31T09:54:05","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/regular-investor.com\/?p=6046"},"modified":"2025-05-31T16:54:08","modified_gmt":"2025-05-31T09:54:08","slug":"indonesia-diprediksi-alami-deflasi-di-mei-2025-apa-dampaknya-pada-ekonomi","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/regular-investor.com\/index.php\/2025\/05\/31\/indonesia-diprediksi-alami-deflasi-di-mei-2025-apa-dampaknya-pada-ekonomi\/","title":{"rendered":"Indonesia Diprediksi Alami Deflasi di Mei 2025, Apa Dampaknya pada Ekonomi?"},"content":{"rendered":"\n

Badan Pusat Statistik (BPS<\/strong>) dijadwalkan akan merilis data inflasi Mei 2025<\/strong> pada 2 Juni 2025<\/strong>. Berdasarkan konsensus Bloomberg, yang melibatkan 12 ekonom dan analis<\/strong>, Indonesia diprediksi mengalami deflasi sebesar 0,17% secara bulanan (month-to-month\/mtm)<\/strong>. Jika terwujud, angka ini jauh lebih rendah dibandingkan inflasi April 2025<\/strong>, yang tercatat 1,17% mtm<\/strong>.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Penyebab Deflasi dan Tren Harga Sembako<\/strong><\/h3>\n\n\n\n

Penurunan harga berbagai bahan pokok menjadi faktor utama deflasi yang diprediksi terjadi pada Mei. Berdasarkan data Badan Pangan Nasional (Bapanas)<\/strong>, beberapa komoditas mengalami penurunan harga dibandingkan Harga Acuan Pembelian (HAP) nasional<\/strong>:<\/p>\n\n\n\n

    \n
  • Kedelai biji kering (impor)<\/strong>: Rp 10.500\/kg (9,58% di bawah HAP<\/strong>)<\/li>\n\n\n\n
  • Bawang merah<\/strong>: Rp 39.794\/kg (4,11% di bawah HAP<\/strong>)<\/li>\n\n\n\n
  • Cabai merah keriting<\/strong>: Rp 50.018\/kg (9,06% di bawah HAP<\/strong>)<\/li>\n\n\n\n
  • Daging sapi murni<\/strong>: Rp 135.449\/kg (3,25% di bawah HAP<\/strong>)<\/li>\n\n\n\n
  • Daging ayam ras<\/strong>: Rp 34.799\/kg (13% di bawah HAP<\/strong>)<\/li>\n\n\n\n
  • Telur ayam ras<\/strong>: Rp 29.109\/kg (3,97% di bawah HAP<\/strong>)<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n\n\n\n

    Penurunan harga ini terjadi pasca Idul Fitri<\/strong>, di mana permintaan terhadap kebutuhan pokok mulai menurun, menyebabkan harga beberapa bahan pangan mengalami koreksi.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

    Inflasi Tahunan Melambat, Daya Beli Tertekan?<\/strong><\/h3>\n\n\n\n

    Selain deflasi bulanan, inflasi tahunan pun diperkirakan melambat. Konsensus Bloomberg yang melibatkan 22 ekonom<\/strong> memperkirakan inflasi Mei sebesar 1,83% year-on-year (yoy)<\/strong>, lebih rendah dibandingkan April yang tercatat 1,95% yoy<\/strong>.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

    Selain penurunan harga sembako, banyak analis berpendapat bahwa melemahnya daya beli masyarakat<\/strong> turut memperlambat laju inflasi Indonesia. Ketidakpastian ekonomi membuat dunia usaha enggan menaikkan harga barang dan jasa<\/strong>, sehingga tekanan inflasi menjadi lebih rendah.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

    Dampak pada Pertumbuhan Ekonomi Indonesia<\/strong><\/h3>\n\n\n\n

    Menurut Bhima Yudhistira<\/strong>, Direktur Eksekutif Center of Economic and Law Studies (Celios)<\/strong>, pertumbuhan ekonomi Indonesia di kuartal II-2025<\/strong> diperkirakan akan berada di kisaran 4,6-4,7%<\/strong>, lebih rendah dibandingkan kuartal I-2025 yang mencapai 4,87%<\/strong>.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

    Bhima mengingatkan bahwa tekanan terhadap konsumsi rumah tangga akibat gelombang PHK<\/strong> bisa semakin menekan daya beli masyarakat. Dengan tidak adanya momentum lebaran di kuartal II, pertumbuhan konsumsi rumah tangga diprediksi lebih rendah dibandingkan kuartal I<\/strong>.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

    Proyeksi pertumbuhan ekonomi hingga akhir 2025 berada di level 4,7%<\/strong>, dan tahun 2026 diperkirakan naik tipis ke level 4,8-4,9%<\/strong>.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

    Strategi untuk Meningkatkan Pertumbuhan Ekonomi<\/strong><\/h3>\n\n\n\n

    Bhima mengusulkan beberapa strategi yang bisa diterapkan untuk meningkatkan pertumbuhan ekonomi Indonesia<\/strong>, di antaranya:<\/p>\n\n\n\n

      \n
    1. Mendorong realisasi belanja pemerintah<\/strong>, khususnya belanja modal yang akan membuka lebih banyak lapangan kerja.<\/li>\n\n\n\n
    2. Menunda pembahasan RUU kontroversial<\/strong>, seperti RUU Polri dan RUU KUHAP<\/strong>, guna menciptakan stabilitas politik<\/strong> agar masyarakat lebih percaya diri dalam membelanjakan uangnya.<\/li>\n\n\n\n
    3. Memperbanyak rekrutmen karyawan BUMN<\/strong>, terutama bagi korban PHK yang berusia di atas 30 tahun<\/strong>.<\/li>\n\n\n\n
    4. Meningkatkan ekspor ke China<\/strong>, memanfaatkan meredanya perang dagang AS-China<\/strong> untuk memperkuat neraca perdagangan.<\/li>\n\n\n\n
    5. Menghindari penerbitan surat utang yang terlalu agresif<\/strong>, agar tidak mengganggu likuiditas perbankan dan daya beli masyarakat.<\/li>\n<\/ol>\n\n\n\n

      Kesimpulan<\/strong><\/h3>\n\n\n\n

      Deflasi yang diperkirakan terjadi pada Mei 2025 serta perlambatan inflasi tahunan menunjukkan bahwa daya beli masyarakat masih lemah<\/strong>, dan dunia usaha belum berani menaikkan harga jual barang dan jasa. Jika kondisi ini terus berlanjut, pertumbuhan ekonomi kuartal II-2025 diperkirakan melambat<\/strong> ke kisaran 4,6-4,7%.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

      Untuk menjaga stabilitas ekonomi<\/strong>, pemerintah perlu mengoptimalkan belanja negara<\/strong>, memperkuat ekspor, dan menciptakan stabilitas politik agar kepercayaan masyarakat terhadap perekonomian tetap terjaga.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

      Badan Pusat Statistik (BPS) dijadwalkan akan merilis data inflasi Mei 2025 pada 2 Juni 2025. Berdasarkan konsensus Bloomberg, yang melibatkan 12 ekonom dan analis, Indonesia diprediksi mengalami deflasi sebesar 0,17% secara bulanan (month-to-month\/mtm). Jika terwujud, angka ini jauh lebih rendah dibandingkan inflasi April 2025, yang tercatat 1,17% mtm. Penyebab Deflasi dan Tren Harga Sembako Penurunan […]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":5917,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":"","jetpack_publicize_message":"","jetpack_publicize_feature_enabled":true,"jetpack_social_post_already_shared":true,"jetpack_social_options":{"image_generator_settings":{"template":"highway","default_image_id":0,"font":"","enabled":false},"version":2},"_links_to":"","_links_to_target":""},"categories":[7],"tags":[34,315,503],"class_list":["post-6046","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-economics","tag-deflasi","tag-ekonomi","tag-indonesia"],"yoast_head":"\nIndonesia Diprediksi Alami Deflasi di Mei 2025, Apa Dampaknya pada Ekonomi? - Regular-investor.com<\/title>\n<meta name=\"description\" content=\"Indonesia diperkirakan mengalami deflasi pada Mei 2025, dengan inflasi tahunan yang melambat. dampaknya 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